Introduction

If computer technology has revolutionized life on this planet, it has also come to dominate our lives in ways we could never have anticipated. Human ingenuity created the information technology industry. Now we stand on the exciting threshold of the Year 2000, but we are also faced with a dilemma for which there is no quick or inexpensive fix.

Over the last 35 years, information technology has become the life blood of business, government and academia. The vast amounts of information retained in computer systems affect nearly every aspect of our daily lives. The Year 2000 has the potential to cause a significant disruption of business and government services and all because of a two-digit decision made back in the 1960s when 2000 AD seemed too far away to worry about.

The Two-digit Decision

Back in the days before PCs, computing was an expensive undertaking that relied on pieces of cardboard called Hollerith cards. Information was stored on these cards by punching patterns of holes that could be read with a beam of light. Unfortunately, these cards only had enough space to accommodate 80 characters. One way of saving characters (and money) was to abbreviate the year to the last two digits, thereby eliminating the crucial `19.' At the time, it seemed to be a reasonable compromise between accuracy and cost. The use of two-digit dates was also later adopted by PC hardware and software manufacturers, and therein lies the problem. In the Year 2000, computers around the world won't know what year it is. Dates in the Year 2000 represented as `00' will appear to precede dates in 1999 represented as `99.' The repercussions are enormous for date-dependent applications and computers and the companies who rely upon them to produce and manage a wide range of products and services that affect us all. The problem is everywhere, from elevator controls to mission-critical devices, from a word processing program on a PC to the U.S. Social Security Administration.

The Year 2000 is not a complex technical problem, but rather one of size and scope. The information technology industry and enterprise managers must now come up with a worldwide date-conversion plan that addresses the Year 2000 problem.

The Problem

Systems and software programs that calculate the day of the week by using only the last two digits of the year risk generating wrong information if the results are date-dependent (January 1, 2000, and all subsequent dates). This is because the formulas they use implicitly assume that the dates are in the 1900s. For example, January 1, 1900 was a Monday, but January 1, 2000 will be a Saturday. Applications that deal with future dates, in such areas as mortgages, insurance policies, driver's licenses and credit cards, are likely to give erroneous results, leading to a general failure of all kinds of information systems.

The change from 1999 to 2000 is complicated by the way software handles 2-digit years,
6-digit dates and leap years.

Two-digit years: When computing was in its infancy, programmers standardized on a four-digit year that assumed the first two digits are `19.' Instead of storing four digits, the software dropped the `19' and stored only the two-digit year. For example, `1986,' was stored as `86.' This seemed like a good compromise at a time when memory was costly and in short supply, and performance could be adversely affected by the manipulation of `unnecessary' data. A saving of two characters per date entry is significant in a large database that contains millions of records. No one concerned themselves with the long-term ramifications of this compromise. Even those programmers who considered the issue may reasonably have assumed that the applications they were writing would be replaced long before the calendar change could cause problems.

Six-digit dates: The six-digit recording for month, day, and year (mmddyy) is a common feature in application software. Computers use the stored six-digit date to compare transaction records. Programs that compare month/day/year without identifying the century will cause transactions in the Year 2000 to appear 100 years old. For example, a 25-year mortgage taken out in 1995 should end in 2020, but the computer might subtract 95 from 20 and list `minus 75 years' as an unusually early mortgage payoff.

Leap year: By convention, the first year of a century can only be a leap year every fourth century. That makes the Year 2000 a leap year, which means that the day following February 28 is February 29.

Not all software programs handle the matter correctly. For instance, some don't include February 29, 2000. Others that do can't tell it from March 1, 1900. Upgrading one's own date-based software will fix only part of this problem. Calculations of Leap Year Day 2000 could cause trouble for networked systems. In today's environment of interconnected systems, a single application, whether mainframe or client-server, can potentially corrupt an enterprise's entire information network by a date that cannot be properly converted.

What is at Stake?

The Year 2000 involves every date and time-specific command or database file pointing to a post-1999 date. Applications that rely on date algorithms may malfunction. This is especially likely to occur in information systems used for planning, scheduling, billing or hiring.

A data mismatch can exist in any level of hardware or software; from microcode to application programs, in files and databases, and on any computing platform. Systems won't stop working after the Year 2000, but the hardware or software may calculate the day incorrectly. The worldwide cost to businesses, governments and individuals is incalculable if solutions have not been implemented by 2000.

Whose Problem is It?

It's everyone's problem. Most of the burden will fall on the shoulders of the information systems industry and managers in business, government and education to come up with a collective response to the Year 2000 problem.

Solutions

Act Now

Time is running out for businesses to change their software and data before the Year 2000. Date conversion has become a growth industry. Faced with escalating costs and the potential for widespread crisis, businesses can no longer run the risk of denial or uninformed action. The technical solutions are not difficult when viewed on a program-by-program basis; however, in the corporate environment, the overall size of the project and the interrelationships of programs and data complicate any solution. To manage the progress of a date-conversion program, every large-scale computing environment should have a cross-departmental, cross-divisional focus. Achieving a successful solution depends on being aware that date conversion involves many interlocking problems.

Creating Awareness

The Year 2000 is an immovable deadline for everyone, whether you are an individual user, a network administrator, a software developer, a computer manufacturer, or a CEO.

Where to start: On-line sources about the problem of Year 2000 compliance provide useful information on when, how and why to test and upgrade programs.

We’re All in this Together

There are many different approaches for dealing with the millennium problem:

What Corporations Need to Do

Organizations cannot rely solely on suppliers or consultants to ascertain the impact of Year 2000. Here are a few suggestions.

What Individual PC Owners Should Do

Most 486s or older computers are not Year 2000 compliant. To test your computer, set your computer clock to December 31, 1999, 23:55:00. Turn off the computer and wait 10 minutes before turning it back on. Check to see if the computer clock reflects the correct date. If necessary, contact your computer manufacturer to see what solutions they have for their customers. Also contact software manufacturers to see if your software is Year 2000 compliant. You may need to upgrade your software, especially date-dependent programs such as spread sheets and accounting applications.

Computers and the Year 2000

Staying out of Trouble

Here are a couple of Year 2000 tips:

Technical Notes: Resetting the Date

BIOS Date

In all IBM PC/AT compatible systems, the current date and time are stored in internal CMOS memory in Binary Coded Decimal (BCD) format, with each component occupying one byte. The components are: second, minute, hour, day of week, month, year (representation of the year utilizes two bytes: one byte for the lower two digits, and one byte for the upper two digits).

Real-time Clocks and Operating System Dates

Most PCs maintain two system dates; one in the CMOS real-time clock (RTC), a chip located on the system board that maintains the date and time even when the system is powered off; and one in the operating system (OS). The RTC system date is accessed and set using BIOS calls. When the operating system is booted, it normally initializes its system date from the RTC. The operating system maintains its system date as long as the system is powered on. The RTC date and time can be changed under most operating systems.

Changing the Date/Time in MS-DOS

In MS-DOS, the DATE and TIME commands display and set the system date and time. The year is handled internally as 16-bit data. When you use the DATE and TIME commands to set the
MS-DOS date, you also update the BIOS date.

For 19XX years, you can set the date by using only the last two digits with the DATE command. For 20XX dates, you need to enter all four digits of the year.

Changing the Date/Time in 16-bit Windows 3.x

Windows 3.x has the millennium bug. The most inexpensive solution is to download the file YEAR2000.ZIP at http://www.winmag.com/people/melgan/year2000/ and follow the instructions in the README file.

Changing the Date/Time in Windows 95

On the far right of the task bar, the current time is displayed. Double-click in this area to open the Date/Time properties window. You may also open this window by double-clicking the Date/Time icon in Control Panel. You can manually set the date and time in this window.

UNIX Dates

The UNIX operating system keeps track of time in numbers of seconds since 1970. This method will track time until the year 2038 when the date function will then require more
than 32 bits.

File Dates

The File Allocation Table (FAT) used by PCs can handle file dates from 1980 to 2099. When you use the DIR command in MS-DOS to display file information, you see only the last two digits of the year. For example, the date of a file created on 3/27/2000 is displayed as 03-27-00. However, the date is stored internally as 03/27/2000. With Windows 95 Explorer, you see only the last two digits of the year but you can view all four digits by selecting Properties.

Windows Applications

To determine if a particular Microsoft application has a date-conversion limitation, visit the Microsoft web site at: http://www.microsoft.com/cio/articles/year2000faq.htm

If you enter a date in Microsoft Excel without specifying the century, Microsoft Excel may assume that the date occurs in the 20th century (1900s). To work around this problem, you can create a macro to change 20th century dates to 21st century dates.

Microsoft Access 95 has a date limit of 1999. For applications like Access, you need to purchase an upgrade.

Contact other software manufacturers to see if their Windows applications are Year 2000 compliant.

Useful Year 2000 Links

For a list of Year 2000 web sites, try: http://www.liant.com/whatsnew/lnk2000.htm

Or, begin with Peter de Jager's The Year 2000 Information Center: http://www.year2000.com